By Valerie Volcovici and Nailia Bagirova
BAKU (Reuters) – The annual U.N. local weather summit kicks off Monday (NASDAQ:) with international locations readying for powerful talks on finance and commerce, following a yr of climate disasters which have emboldened creating international locations of their calls for for local weather money.
Delegates gathering in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku are hoping to resolve the summit’s high agenda merchandise – a deal for as much as $1 trillion in annual local weather finance for creating international locations.
The summit’s negotiating priorities, nevertheless, are competing for governments’ assets and a spotlight in opposition to financial considerations, wars in Ukraine and Gaza and final week’s U.S. re-election of Donald Trump, a climate-change denier, as president of the world’s greatest financial system.
COP29 host Azerbaijan might be tasked with preserving international locations targeted on agreeing to a brand new world finance goal to switch the present $100 billion pledge expiring this yr.
The Caspian Sea nation, usually pleased with being dwelling to the world’s first oil wells, may also be beneath stress to indicate progress from final yr’s COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels.
The nation’s oil and gasoline revenues accounted for 35% of its financial system in 2023, down from 50% two years prior. The federal government says these revenues will proceed to say no, to roughly 32% of its GDP this yr and 22% by 2028.
Earlier than the summit talks may even start, international locations might want to agree on an agenda by consensus – together with an Eleventh-hour proposal by China to deliver commerce disputes into the combination.
The Chinese language proposal – made on behalf of the fast-developing “BASIC” group of nations together with Brazil, India and South Africa – requested for the summit to deal with “restrictive trade measures” such because the EU’s carbon border tariffs going into impact in 2026.
These considerations have been compounded by Trump’s marketing campaign promise to impose 20% tariffs on all overseas items – and 60% on Chinese language items.
China’s request confirmed it was flexing energy following Trump’s re-election, which signaled the US’ seemingly disengagement from world local weather cooperation, stated Li Shuo, director of China Local weather Hub on the Asia Society Coverage Institute.
Trump has referred to as local weather change a hoax and vowed to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Settlement, the worldwide treaty to scale back planet-warming emissions.
The European Union, together with present U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, have been urgent China and Gulf oil nations to hitch the pool of local weather finance donor international locations.
“If the EU wants to talk about climate finance with China, if it wants to talk NDCs, part of the conversation should be how to resolve our differences on trade and your tariffs,” Shuo stated.
EXTREME PRESSURE
With this yr on observe to be the most well liked on report, specialists famous that local weather extremes had been now difficult wealthy and poor international locations alike – from flooding disasters in Africa, coastal Spain and the U.S. state of North Carolina, to drought gripping South America, Mexico and the U.S. West.
Most international locations aren’t ready.
“Election results don’t alter the laws of physics,” stated Kaveh Guilanpour, vice chairman for worldwide methods on the nonprofit Middle for Local weather and Vitality Options.
“Unless the world collectively steps up its efforts, the impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe and frequent and will be felt by an increasing number of people in all countries, including in the United States.”
Many in Baku had been fearful {that a} U.S. disengagement may lead different international locations to backpedal on previous local weather pledges or to reduce future ambitions.
“That is definitely a risk. People will be saying, well, the U.S. is the second biggest emitter. It’s the biggest economy in the world … If they don’t set themselves an ambitious target, why would we?” Marc Vanheukelen, the EU’s local weather ambassador from 2019 to 2023, advised Reuters.
GIFT OF GAS
Azerbaijan has spent the final yr lobbying governments to speed up their transfer to scrub vitality whereas touting gasoline as a transition gas.
With Azeri President Ilham Aliyev having referred to as its fossil gas bounty “a gift of God,” Azerbaijan has proposed making a Local weather Finance Motion (WA:) Fund to gather voluntarily as much as $1 billion from extractive corporations throughout 10 international locations together with Azerbaijan.
This yr, the nation’s gasoline exports to Europe are anticipated to exceed 12 billion cubic meters, up from 11.8 billion cubic meters final yr, as Europe seeks to scale back its reliance on Russian gasoline.
The nation’s chief COP29 negotiator, Deputy Overseas Minister Yalchin Rafiyev, stated gasoline remained a key a part of the vitality combine for international locations with restricted options.
“In this context, we must intensify our efforts to align usage with greenhouse gas reduction goals,” Yalchin advised Reuters.
Environmental teams and local weather scientists have criticised the promotion of gasoline as a clear vitality possibility, noting that it’s a climate-polluting fossil gas.
Presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev stated that, with its buildup of renewables, Azerbaijan was “moving from fossil fuel exports to green electricity exports.” The nation goals to have renewable vitality fueling 35% of its energy plant capability by 2030. Final yr, this determine was about 20%.
Azerbaijan additionally has fought criticism for its jailing political prisoners together with journalists, and ethnic Armenians that Azerbaijan describes as separatist leaders.
Azerbaijan’s Aliyev has rejected the criticism and warned that it may undermine the delicate peace negotiations between the 2 former Soviet republics.
