Market Outlook 258

Market Outlook #258 (third March 2024)

Good day and welcome to the 258th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Identify Service and Myro. I might be publishing an extended Outlook subsequent week with a number of extra smallcaps in attention-grabbing sectors, however in case you have any requests please do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Month-to-month:

Weekly:

Every day:

Value: $62,624

Market Cap: $1.231trn

Ideas: Starting with the Month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we are able to see that February was one of many strongest months in historical past for Bitcoin, rallying off the month-to-month open all the way in which into the month-to-month shut at ~$61,200. This did happen on barely much less quantity than January, however the sheer power of the price-action right here is clear, with the pair closing via the 78.6% fib of the bear market at $57.6k and above $59k resistance, having marginally rejected on the final stage of resistance under all-time highs at $64,900. Value is presently holding to a steep parabolic advance, as proven by the curve of the rally to this point, and will this advance maintain into March we must always see continuation via all-time highs, with $100k as the apparent main stage overhead to seek out important resistance, with it being each a psychological stage and the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There may be additionally loads of room for upside relative to prior cycles on momentum indicators, which look primed for continuation.

If we have a look at the weekly chart, we are able to see how this previous week rallied off that weekly open round $52.1k, having consolidated in a really tight vary the week prior, pushing via $59.2k into $64.1k and now set to shut round $62.6k. All of this occurred on big quantity on the week, persevering with the sample of progress following the consolidation week. Weekly RSI is pushing into new highs, indicating rampant momentum right here, and we now have solely $64,900 standing in the way in which of latest highs past $69.2k. The parabola has additionally been depicted right here, nonetheless, and we do have additional room to consolidate following this enlargement if required while nonetheless holding the parabolic advance. Now, what’s form of wild is that this tempo of advance is indicative of costs near $100k as early as this summer season. What we might even see happen – and what can be extra typical of a 4-year cycle – can be a break of the parabola shortly following new all-time highs, consolidation for a interval after which a brand new parabolic advance into the market cycle peak. If, nonetheless, we merely maintain to this curve and rally into and past the summer season, it’s probably we see a cyclical prime inside 2024. Looking forward to subsequent week, I believe it’s extremely probably if ETF inflows persist we see this resistance damaged and worth push into that all-time excessive, the place I’d anticipate to see a number of volatility, significantly given the quantity of leverage within the markets at current.

Turning lastly to the day by day, we are able to see that worth has been consolidating in tightening day by day ranges for the previous 4 days following the break and shut via $59.2k. On condition that momentum is displaying no indicators of exhaustion on any timeframe we now have checked out, one is inclined to anticipate upside decision to this consolidation. Nonetheless, as we do have *quite a bit* of leverage right here, I’d not be stunned to see price-action just like final week the place we take out native lows into assist at $59.2k earlier than reversing sharply larger via $65k. Wild week forward…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Every day:

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

Every day:

Value: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)

Market Cap: $416.329bn

Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has continued to rally larger, constructing on the previous three weeks of comparable price-action, rallying off that weekly open into the weekly shut right here at $3460, shy of prior assist at $3580 – the extent we now have marked out as a goal for a swing place for a while now. this, there aren’t any clear causes to anticipate the rally to stop right here, with momentum in full assist of bulls and no indicators of rejection but. That mentioned, I’ve now exited levered longs, holding solely spot ETH as we go into subsequent week – no must be a hero up right here, for my part. If we do reject $3580. I’d anticipate a higher-low to type over the subsequent couple of weeks above $2800 and worth to proceed from there into $3950. Nonetheless, if we don’t reject subsequent week, I believe it’s probably this simply continues to tear into that $3950 stage shortly thereafter, with solely $4385 then holding it down earlier than recent all-time highs. It’s probably that this final transfer upwards into all-time highs will happen when BTC/USD has damaged all-time highs and consolidated, permitting ETH/BTC to proceed to maneuver larger.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that regardless of the profitable breakout past long-term trendline resistance, this previous week of price-action in BTC/USD has weighed closely, inflicting the pair to retrace the rally all the way in which again under the trendline, under the 200wMA, and again into assist at 0.0551. This really is chop metropolis right here, however we do have some indicators of power in momentum and construction right here, so long as this now holds above 0.051; if BTC/USD makes a brand new all-time excessive subsequent week and ETH/BTC doesn’t make a lower-low under 0.051, that will be a *big* signal of power, for my part. Wanting briefly on the day by day, we are able to see how the 360dMA capped the final rally, however day by day construction is trying respectable right here as we type a higher-low above that 0.0533 stage. Actually, till we see BTC break all-time highs, it’s onerous to have a learn on this on the day by day timeframe in any respect – I simply wish to see 0.051 maintain on that all-time excessive break to make certain on betting on ETH power from there.

Filecoin:

FIL/USD

Weekly:

Every day:

FIL/BTC

Weekly:

Every day:

Value: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.505bn

Ideas: If we start by FIL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth turned weekly construction bullish on the transfer via $6.74 into $8.13, retraced to seek out assist above $4.63 and has since rallied on rising quantity into $11.25 this previous week, confirming the uptrend. Momentum additionally seems to be sturdy right here, and if the pair can maintain above $8.13 subsequent week I’d anticipate to see worth commerce via $11.25 in direction of the subsequent main resistance at $17. Actually although, we’re barely leaving disbelief for this market cycle as worth breaks via $11.25, with the 23.6% fib of the bear market all the way in which up close to $57. In case you are a spot holder from the lows, I’d simply sit comfortably and await on the very least a 200wMA retest at $26, with main resistance above that at $30, earlier than trying to exit something in any respect. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to additionally see how the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA acted as assist, with the previous now crossing above the latter (an indication of an rising bull marketplace for alts). From there, worth rallied into recent yearly highs, with day by day construction firmly bullish. There aren’t any indicators of exhaustion right here both, so any pull-backs in direction of $8.80 can be shopping for alternatives, for my part, with invalidation under $6.74.

Turning to FIL/BTC, on the weekly we are able to see that the pair remains to be very a lot at cycle lows, having solely simply bounced off of all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, via 14.2k as reclaimed assist into 18.5k satoshis this previous week, which is prior assist turned resistance. We now have had diminishing volatility into this assist cluster for months, and an in depth via 18.5k would flip weekly construction bullish right here. If we see that, I believe it’s secure to say the pair is rising from a bear market right into a bull market and we are able to anticipate sustained outperformance from there. In that state of affairs I believe we imply revert in direction of that 200wMA at 80k satoshis, slightly below the 23.6% fib, within the coming months. If we briefly drop into the day by day, we are able to additionally see how the 200dMA is now appearing as resistance and the 360dMA, which capped rallies just lately, has been breached and is now appearing as assist additionally, offering confluence for this bottoming formation. Not a lot else so as to add right here for now however this seems to be strong for power within the subsequent few weeks.

ImmutableX:

IMX/USD

Every day:

IMX/BTC

Every day:

Value: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.541bn

Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for a few years, each pairs look nearly equivalent right here, so let’s concentrate on the greenback pair.

IMX/USD, we are able to see that following a higher-low formation above assist at $1.76, worth continued the uptrend, rallying via the $2.61 excessive in February into $3.70, the place it discovered resistance proper across the 50% fib of the bear market and simply shy of the 100% fib extension of the present uptrend. We now have since seen worth consolidate while momentum indicators reset, with prior resistance at $2.87 now appearing as assist. From right here, I’m anticipating one other leg larger to unfold, resulting in a retest of main resistance at $4.50 – across the 61.8% fib of the bear market, together with the final stage of horizontal resistance. That’s the place I’m trying to unload half of my spot bag of IMX from the lows – with a view to holding the remaining for worth discovery via $7, as any shut via $4.50 has no resistance into that all-time excessive stage… it’s been an excellent journey up to now.

Beam:

BEAM/USD

Every day:

BEAM/BTC

Every day:

Value: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.794bn

Ideas: Once more, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair for Beam, because it has solely been buying and selling for a number of months.

BEAM/USD, we are able to see that worth emerged from the prior consolidation vary, flipped that prior all-time excessive at assist at $0.0275 and has been slowly grinding up and consolidating since, pushing into a brand new excessive at $0.038 however discovering a lot resistance at $0.0366. For one of the best a part of the previous month, prior resistance at $0.0307 has acted as assist on this vary and we now have had bearish divergence. There are presently no indicators that the bearish divergence will play out, however the first signal can be an in depth via $0.0307, turning that stage into reclaimed resistance, from which level I’d anticipate to see $0.0275 swept earlier than a brand new low varieties and worth resumes the uptrend. If, nonetheless, worth merely pushes via $0.037 within the coming days and finds assist above that all-time excessive, making higher-highs on RSI, we invalidate this divergence, and that’s normally a really sturdy sign for one more leg larger. In that state of affairs, I’m $0.051 as a significant goal, as it’s the confluence of the 200% extension of the prior consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Longer-term, I’m on the lookout for costs nicely past $0.051, however we are going to then be entering into the latter phases of the market cycle: my expectations are a $10bn+ FDV for Beam when all is alleged and performed, so we’ve nonetheless bought an excellent 5-6x in it not less than if my expectations play out.

Ethereum Identify Service:

ENS/USD

Weekly:

Every day:

ENS/BTC

Weekly:

Every day:

Value: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)

Market Cap: $685.627mn

Ideas: Starting with ENS/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that worth has been consolidating for many of this yr following that prime quantity rally via a number of key resistance ranges. We hit $27.43 off that rally and have since been capped by $24.30 as resistance, discovering assist above $14.55. The previous few weeks have been spent proper up close to that vary resistance, with this week seeing a profitable retest of prior resistance turned assist at $18.50. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, we are able to see how momentum has utterly reset however is holding above that fifty mark as higher-lows type on the value chart, which is promising for bulls. We now have native trendline resistance capping the highs, however I’m trying to open a levered lengthy on an in depth above $24.30, turning that stage and the trendline into assist, as I anticipate we are going to start the subsequent leg larger into the $38-41 vary from there. I’m additionally nonetheless holding my full spot place from $8.50ish, which I’m not trying to promote any time quickly, with a view to carry for the 50% fib of the bear market round $85-90. Should you’re on the sidelines, this subsequent break and shut via resistance is strictly what you wish to pounce on when it comes…

Turning to ENS/BTC, we are able to see that the pair retraced a lot of the single-week rally over the previous couple of months, closing via assist turned resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week, as worth bought off into reclaimed assist above 32k. I’m anticipating a higher-low to type above the 30k area in March, from which we see continuation of the bull cycle for ENS via 65k satoshis into the October 2022 Excessive round 108k satoshis – the 38.2% fib of the bear market. Above that stage, we enter the endgame and strategy the latter phases of the market cycle, however, if we drop into the day by day, we are able to see that worth is discovering assist above each the 200dMA and 360dMA, which had acted as resistance prior – and in case you have but to purchase spot ENS and wish to hitch your wagon to the Vitalik-endorsed Categorical, someplace within the the 30-32k satoshi area would make excellent sense, particularly if BTC blasts via all-time highs within the near-term and supplies one other dump on the ENS/BTC pair into assist. So long as 26k satoshis doesn’t give approach, I believe this nonetheless seems to be strong.

Myro:

MYRO/USD

Every day:

MYRO/BTC

Every day:

Value: $0.158 (255 satoshis)

Market Cap: $157.943mn

Ideas: As Myro has solely been buying and selling for a number of months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.

MYRO/USD, we are able to see that worth consolidated after that all-time excessive at $0.26, retracing quickly into $0.041 as assist initially of February. From there, worth shaped a multi-week vary capped by prior assist at $0.11, forming a higher-low above $0.052 in mid-February earlier than rallying via that $0.11 stage a few days in the past, as memecoin mania started to kick into gear. That stage is now appearing as assist, and worth is sat simply shy of prior resistance at $0.176. I’m anticipating to see continuation via this stage into the prior all-time excessive within the subsequent couple of weeks, main to cost discovery and continuation of the broader uptrend. The following goal via $0.26 can be $0.44 because the 1.618 extension of the pattern, adopted by $0.53. Little else so as to add right here.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.