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Danish pharma big Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has been on an absolute tear in 2024. The shares have rocketed over 40% prior to now 12 months, making it one of many hottest tickets within the inventory market. The corporate has set buyers’ pulses racing with its blockbuster weight reduction medication Wegovy and Ozempic, which have proven they’re probably the true deal.
However after such a stellar run, I reckon the shares would possibly have to loosen their belt a notch. Right here’s why I’m not dashing to gobble up any of the shares at present costs.
Bloated valuation?
The shares now sport a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of round 46 instances, which is decidedly chunkier than the typical P/E of about 15 instances for its friends. The inventory’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15.7 instances can be tipping the scales. These multiples counsel the market has already baked in a hefty serving of future progress. This makes me nervous after such a wholesome rally, since any disappointment or errors might result in a significant decline.
So whereas current efficiency has been nothing wanting mouth-watering, with earnings bulking up by 33.7% over the previous 12 months, maintaining this tempo is likely to be a tall order. Analysts expect earnings progress to slim right down to about 14% yearly over the approaching years. That’s nonetheless a wholesome determine, however maybe not sufficient to justify the premium price ticket.
Provide and regulatory challenges
One other restrict to near-term progress is provide constraints for its common GLP-1 medication. Whereas this overwhelming demand is actually a pleasant drawback to have, it has pressured administration to place launches in some worldwide markets on the backburner.
Finding out these manufacturing bottlenecks will take time and a wholesome injection of capital. In the meantime, rivals like Eli Lilly are racing to deliver new weight reduction marvel medication to the desk, probably taking a chunk out of the first-mover benefit.
As weight problems and diabetes therapies achieve extra customers, they’re additionally attracting extra consideration from regulators. Throughout the pond, Medicare is gearing as much as begin haggling over costs, which might hit revenue margins in a significant market.
There are additionally ongoing research poking and prodding at potential unwanted side effects of GLP-1 medication. Whereas the drugs have confirmed to be protected in medical trials, any whiff of security issues might put a significant dampener on the get together.
One other concern is that some insiders have been cashing of their chips not too long ago. The corporate’s books present an worker consultant director offloaded about £1.1m value of inventory in mid-August. Whereas insider gross sales don’t imply the sky is falling, they’re value chewing over once they occur after such a hearty run-up.
One to look at
Regardless of these potential near-term hiccups, I reckon the agency’s long-term outlook stays as tasty as ever. The worldwide weight problems epidemic isn’t stopping any time quickly, and Novo Nordisk is sitting fairly as a frontrunner on this increasing area. The corporate additionally has a full plate of latest drug candidates within the pipeline that might gas future progress.
Nonetheless, given the wealthy valuation and attainable velocity bumps forward, I think the shares would possibly battle to maintain up their current Usain Bolt impression within the coming months. So whereas Novo Nordisk is likely to be due a breather within the inventory market, I feel it stays a top-notch enterprise that deserves a spot on any savvy Idiot’s watchlist.
