Market Outlook #262

Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)

Hiya and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s publish, I might be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.

As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know through e mail or within the feedback.

Bitcoin:

Month-to-month:

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we are able to see that final month was the best ever shut for Bitcoin on probably the most quantity in over a 12 months, closing firmly by $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m certain you might be conscious – not bearish. this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless seems tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we now have a bit extra of a difficulty, because it seems extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in the direction of the notion that each one April dips are for purchasing. Wanting forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I believe we see $100k traded by Q3, and we are able to see why within the weekly chart…

Wanting on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we might proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to increased costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I believe we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce increased quickly from there. The extra bullish state of affairs right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Could and subsequent value discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in the direction of $100k by July.

In some unspecified time in the future that parabola will break: it is going to both be quickly, and we’ll see an extended consolidation by summer time earlier than reversal doubtless late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in a number of months time, after which I don’t know the way the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we have a look at the day by day, we are able to see that some kind of ascending triangle is presently forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the day by day beneath that, that is perhaps an early indicator of misplaced momentum and subsequently the start of a bigger transfer down, doubtless in the direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nevertheless, we proceed to kind higher-lows right here into mid-April I believe we push by $74k and start the subsequent leg. The liquidation cascade state of affairs can be a pointy wick by $61k that results in a push into $59k – doubtless within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing value increased. Let’s see how this week closes out…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Day by day:

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a decent vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in the direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I believe its trajectory relies upon BTC/USD over the subsequent week or two. If we drop into the day by day for readability, we are able to see how a lower-high has shaped beneath $3726, however value is presently discovering assist and $3222 – the early March low. If this assist holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation increased by $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I might count on $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I believe we mark a backside and proceed increased from there; if as a substitute we shut beneath $3057 and that degree acts as resistance, the pair is prone to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m presently leaning in the direction of one of many first two eventualities, as until $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.

Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair seems notably woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we at the moment are pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this degree, I believe it’s doubtless we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we now have the final couple of weeks, that may present some power from bulls and we may be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s arduous to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m certain we’ll get some sense of course within the subsequent couple of weeks…

Cardano:

ADA/USD

Weekly:

Day by day:

ADA/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that value has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and shifting decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was appearing as assist. We now have momentum exhaustion right here as nicely, supporting the concept that Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I might count on value to drift again in the direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned assist at $0.47-0.49. If bulls in some way flip up right here, I believe that is solely an extended again above $0.68, seeking to purchase that as resistance turned assist and commerce it increased into $0.90.

Turning to ADA/BTC, we are able to see that value rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all 12 months, retracing all the rally from the October 2023 backside again into assist right here at 858,. Now that is far more supportive for some reduction for Cardano, given the response off this degree late final 12 months, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that may be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the subsequent assist at 700 satoshis. If we do discover assist right here once more, that will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 degree for continuation increased.

Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

Day by day:

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value is sat on trendline assist from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed assist at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls wish to see this space maintain agency and value to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which is able to then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main assist and sure a higher-low kind continuation in the direction of $1.31 and past. If, nevertheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I might count on to see one other close to 20% of draw back in the direction of $0.74 as the subsequent main assist. If we drop into the day by day, we see related construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of development exhaustion simply but, opening up the chance of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we are able to catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that degree.

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year assist and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There isn’t a main assist beneath this all the way in which into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of development exhaustion right here. If something, you doubtless wish to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as assist or value trades into that 948 degree. Not enticing in any respect right here.

Optimism:

OP/USD

Day by day:

OP/BTC

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively brief price-history of Optimism, we are able to see that value shaped an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into assist at $3, above which it presently sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we now have the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do suppose this continues to puke in the direction of the 200dMA, doubtless sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I believe this nonetheless simply seems like a broad vary above historic resistance turned assist; shut beneath that and this seems far more bearish. If we are able to mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m on the lookout for $5.80 as the subsequent goal for my spot holdings.

Casper:

CSPR/USD

Weekly:

Day by day:

CSPR/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by CSPR/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with newer value motion confined between assist at $0.031 and assist turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary inside the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely recognized a downtrend and an extended flat consolidation, so it’s in all probability price shopping for partials near vary assist and including to your place on a clear weekly shut by $0.054, you probably have elementary conviction on this mission. Above $0.054, I believe the primary bull cycle is prone to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however doubtless costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.

Turning to CSPR/BTC, in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with current value motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. We now have the makings of minor development exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish value discovery. I might be on the lookout for construction and momentum to indicate us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be trustworthy. If we drop into the day by day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as assist, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t a realizing the place this stops.

Realio:

RIO/USD

Weekly:

Day by day:

RIO/BTC

Weekly:

Day by day:

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a robust uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push by the ultimate resistance degree at $2.74 on enormous quantity into $5.61, however finally reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and quite I count on we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and value continues to run increased in the direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t a must count on something apart from what we now have already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s doubtless we get a deeper correction in the direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.

Turning to RIO/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed value shut by a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed assist at 1836. As talked about above, I might count on continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut by 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I believe this can be a misprint – both manner, above 6k satoshis, I believe you’re successfully in value discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can be nonetheless bullish, so there’s numerous draw back we might see earlier than any break in construction.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.